Did you know that countries experiencing prolonged political instability see a 25-50% drop in foreign direct investment on average?

Political stability is a key factor in attracting international capital, and instability can lead to massive economic slowdowns.

In today’s edition of our newsletter, we cover these three topics:

• Election A Toss-Up, But Harris Has A Slight Edge: First, we’ll find out how post-debate momentum is affecting predictions for the U.S. presidency 🗳️

• Biden Leaves His Successor A World Of Disorder: Next, we’ll take a deep dive into the foreign-policy legacy of President Biden 💥

• Israel’s War Makes Gazans Less Radical: Finally, we’ll discover how the ongoing conflict in Gaza is transforming political attitudes in the region ⚔️

Stay tuned as we examine how these political and economic shifts could affect market conditions and trading strategies in the months ahead. Y’all ready?

Election A Toss-Up, But Harris Has A Slight Edge 🗳️

Prior to the debate, Trump held a slight edge, with Nate Silver, the nations top election forecaster, giving him a 62% chance of winning versus 38% for Harris.

Trump’s poor debate performance has been weighing on his numbers, and according to Silver’s latest numbers produced by his model, Harris’s odds have increased to 54% versus 46% for Trump.

According to Silver, it’s essentially a 50/50 race, but Harris has the momentum 🔵

Biden Leaves His Successor A World Of Disorder 💥

President Biden addressed the United Nations on Tuesday, in what is likely to be his last big moment on the world stage.

A President’s foreign-policy legacy typically outlasts his term, so it’s worth taking a step back and considering the world Mr. Biden will leave his successor.

It is a far more dangerous world than Mr. Biden inherited, and far less congenial for U.S. interests, human freedom and democracy.

The latter is tragically ironic since the President has made the global contest between democracy and authoritarians an abiding theme ✊

Authoritarians have advanced on his watch in every part of the world—Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and even the Americas.

Russia launched a war against Ukraine that is raging.

Iran is waging a war against Israel through its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

China is flexing its muscles in the Asia-Pacific.

The dictatorship in Venezuela has stolen an election in perhaps the largest electoral fraud in history.

Mexico is sliding in an authoritarian direction.

Biden prides himself on his diplomatic skills, but the world sees a lot of talk without any willingness to exercise US power to check our enemies 🛡️

Addressing this gathering storm will be difficult and dangerous for the future president.

The first task will be restoring U.S. deterrence, which will require more hard power and political will.

Whoever wins the White House will have to abandon the failed policies of the Biden years, lest we end up careening into a global conflict with catastrophic consequences.

💰 Your New Income Generator 💰

Get an exclusive sneak peek into this secret income generator - Right In Your Pocket

1. Blow Away The Competition: Use this little-known stock market loophole to make $500-$1,000 DAILY.

2. Streamlined Trading System: This 5-step system is so easy to learn that anyone from college dropouts to 80-year-old grandmas can get started with it.

3. No Experience Or Equipment Needed: All you need is your phone or laptop, an internet connection, and 1-2 hours a day, and you’ll be ready to get going.

If you’d like to know more, sign up now for a free training that shows you exactly how you can get started.

Israel’s War Makes Gazans Less Radical ⚔️

Internationally, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has been criticized for not giving Gazans a political alternative to Hamas.

But recent polling suggests that the war itself is teaching Gazans that terrorism is both futile and costly.

Stabilizing Gaza for a more fruitful “day after” will be difficult.

But Gazans are being deradicalized even now.

Every few months, the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research polls Gazans and West Bank Palestinians about their politics.

Their first poll post-October 7, 2023 was published December 2023.

Two months into Israel’s military operation, Hamas was still an intact force and only northern Gaza was being hit by the IDF.

Over half of Gazans were satisfied with Hamas and its chief, Yahya Sinwar.

Nearly 60% approved of Hamas attack against Israel and the Oct. 7 massacres in particular 👍

Nine months later, Gaza is a wreck and Hamas is a shell.

Gaza is highly urban, so Hamas’s practice of hiding among civilians ensures that even the most precise bombings and demolitions will be generally destructive.

The United Nations Satellite Center’s July analysis estimated that more than 100,000 of Gaza’s buildings had been moderately damaged, including 46,000 that were totally destroyed.

According to the Israeli military, most of Hamas’s battalions are disabled and 17,000 of its fighters are dead.

Gazans resent Israel for the carnage, but they also resent Hamas for inviting it.

According to this month’s poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, satisfaction with Hamas has declined to 39%, and satisfaction with Mr. Sinwar to 29%.

As important, Hamas’s methods are losing popularity.

Only 39% of Gazans think perpetrating the Oct. 7 massacres was a “correct” decision on Hamas’s part 👎

Just over a third now favor armed struggle to advance Palestinian goals.

Even these numbers are likely too bullish on Hamas.

Two other local polling services, Arab World for Research and Development and the Institute for Social and Economic Progress, put Gazan support for Hamas’s postwar governance at single digits early in the summer, when Israel had only begun its operations in the southern city of Rafah.

Two novelties of Israel’s current campaign likely account for Hamas’s diminished popularity in Gaza.

This is Israel’s first ever war of Palestinian regime change.

In the years since Hamas conquered Gaza after Israel’s 2005 withdrawal, Israel conducted several operations to impair the terror group.

Israel’s current campaign in the northern West Bank, like 2002’s Operation Defense Shield there, is likewise meant to reduce terrorism, rather than to evict the Palestinian Authority.

But since Oct. 7, the Netanyahu government has aimed to eliminate Hamas entirely.

Gazans are learning that Hamas is a losing cause, because the group is no match for the Israel Defense Forces ❌

The war’s second novel aspect is its sheer destructiveness.

Israel’s most ambitious Gaza operation prior to this campaign was in 2014.

That operation lasted only six weeks and fewer than 7,000 buildings were destroyed.

In contrast, between October 2023 and July 2024, nearly half of Gaza’s buildings were damaged or destroyed—by August, roughly two-thirds of its roads and cropland had been damaged, too.

Most Gazans have been out of their homes for months.

Non-stop media coverage captures the strip’s desolate mood.

Polling in war zones isn’t fully reliable, but the best evidence suggests Hamas is suffering politically among the Gazans and it has led to disaster.

Now that Hamas is severely degraded, Gazans are every day getting new reasons to prefer a peaceful alternative.

Inner Circle Global Macro Update 🔍

If you wish to gain access to our Inner Circle Global Macro Update, packed with exclusive insights from award-winning portfolio manager and economist Seth Antiles, with secrets that’ll give you an edge in the stock market, be sure to upgrade by clicking the button below 👇️