Did you know that extreme weather events like hurricanes can reduce U.S. GDP by up to 1% in particularly bad years?

Always factor in external risks—natural disasters can disrupt entire markets and supply chains.

Here are today’s topics:

• The Economy Is Performing Well, But Watch The Weather: First, recent hurricanes have shown how weather can disrupt markets and industries 👀

• What About Insurance Stocks? Next, despite massive potential losses from Hurricane Milton, insurance stocks are bouncing back 📝

• Google Faces A Breakup Threat In DOJ Blow—What Comes Next For Alphabet: Finally, the U.S. Department of Justice is exploring drastic measures to break up Google’s monopoly 🤷

Stay informed on what shapes the market, and learn how this can influence your own investment strategy. Y’all ready?

The Economy Is Performing Well, But Watch The Weather 👀

From the Fed’s perspective, the US economy is performing well in terms of the Fed’s dual mandate of stable prices and sustainable maximum employment.

While hiring weakened over the summer, the U.S. labor market isn’t slow.

But weather presents a risk to the outlook ⛈️

We’ve had massive weather events, first Hurricane Helene, now we’ve got Milton that’s bearing down on Florida.

Hurricane Helene has already created tremendous devastation and hardship.

In the past, these storms have affected everything from pecan harvests to housing-market trends to prices for homeowners’ insurance.

The damage doesn’t last, but it certainly can be disruptive 😨

What About Insurance Stocks? 📝

Property and casualty insurance stocks are higher after sharp declines in Monday’s session, even as a powerful Hurricane Milton approaches Florida’s Gulf Coast.

It is possible that the storm could inflict $50 billion to $100 billion of losses on the insurance industry if it makes a direct hit on Tampa.

Computer models indicate that could happen this week, leaving insurers to face what has long been considered one of the worst potential scenarios for the industry.

Pegging potential losses is difficult at this stage 🤔

But in a tweet Tuesday, Enki Research said that while the economic impact will depend on the exact course of the storm, most estimates cluster around $60-$75 billion, with some as high as $150 billion.

If the storm strikes south of Tampa, as models say is possible, losses could be lower.

So why did stocks rise on Tuesday?

The stocks have arguably priced in sizable losses already.

Some 36 stocks covered by KBW analyst Meyer Shields lost a collective $50 billion of market value.

Investors may be taking comfort from leading insurers’ strong capital positions, anticipating that property insurance rates, particularly for reinsurers, could be stronger than previously expected 📈

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Google Faces A Breakup Threat In DOJ Blow—What Comes Next For Alphabet 🤷

The U.S. Department of Justice is considering whether to demand a breakup of Google after the search giant was ruled to be an illegal monopoly.

It could be the biggest antitrust action in decades.

The Justice Department submitted a filing Tuesday which outlined a range of options from conduct restrictions to a breakup of Google’s business.

It is the next step in an antitrust case against Google after a federal judge ruled in August that the company had an illegal monopoly in general search services and general text advertising 🧐

The filing said the government is considering measures to restore competition, including changes to Google’s business that would prevent it from using products such as its Chrome browser or Android operating system to advantage Google’s engine search.

The Justice Department has until November 20 to decide the specific fix it will propose in the Google search case.

“Overall, we do not believe there are any major surprises, but the preliminary framework carries headline risk and suggests structural changes or separation proposals are possible,” wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth in a research note.

The final choice over the imposition of any remedies lies with the courts, rather than the government 🏛️

It is expected the judge’s final decision will come sometime next year. Google is likely to appeal any decision which would require a radical restructuring, leaving the case stuck in court for years.

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