Did you know that the yield curve has historically been one of the most reliable indicators of an upcoming recession?

While this financial phenomenon may seem complex, it has repeatedly signaled shifts in the economy over decades.

Here’s what we’ll cover today:

• Market Is On Edge Ahead Of Jobs Data: First, investors are holding their breath as they await the latest jobs report 😬

• Tech Under Pressure: Next, the tech sector is now leading the decline 🖥️

• Yield Curve Is No Longer Inverted: Finally, we’ll examine what an un-inverted yield curve means for the stock market 📈📉

Stay tuned as we unpack these important developments and what they could mean for your investment strategy. Here we go!

Market Is On Edge Ahead Of Jobs Data 😬

Every few weeks or months recession fears rear their head.

The last flair-up was in early August, and now in early September, just one month later, the fears are back.

The culprit once again was a soft manufacturing data 📊

In early August, the one-two punch came from a soft manufacturing number that was followed up by a weak Employment Report for the month of July.

That sent the stock market tumbling.

Investors are anxiously awaiting the August Jobs report due out on Friday morning at 8:30am.

Tech Under Pressure 🖥️

Each time the market has come under severe strain in recent weeks, it's been the tech sector that has led the descent, just as its led the ascent for nearly two years.

Even though the technology sector is the growth engine for the US economy, its high P/E multiple makes it especially vulnerable during market wobbles.

We saw that during the 8.5% decline in the S&P 500, and we saw it again on Tuesday when the S%P 500 lost 2%.

During the latest decline, Nvidia was front and center, losing 10% on the day.

For long-term investors who can stomach the volatility, technology should continue to lead, but beware of the daily volatility, especially in the weeks ahead 📅

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Yield Curve Is No Longer Inverted 📈 📉

For those who have been fretting about the 10-year treasury yield trading below the two-year yield (this is known as an inverted yield curve), you can stop worrying.

For the first time in at least two years, the two yields are now the same at 3.79%.

Economists have long noted that inverted yield curves have historically been good predictors of recession.

Therefore, one would think that the un-inversion would ease concerns.

However, some economists have rightly noted that, more often than not, un-inversion occurs once the recession has actually begun 😨

Throughout history, the Fed has woken up to the recession only after it has begun, and begins to cut interest rates aggressively, and the Fed’s actions bring the two-year rate below the ten-year rate.

Is this time different?

It would certainly seem so—most economic data indicates that the economy is growing at a slower but still healthy rate ✔️

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