Did you know that Ohio has predicted the winner of the presidential election 93% of the time since 1904?

Its economic and political landscape is a microcosm of the broader U.S.

In today’s edition of our newsletter, we bring you these three articles:

• It’s the Senator from Ohio: First, we’ll explore the implications of JD Vance being chosen as Donald Trump's running mate 🎖️

• Trump’s Speech Will Now Set the Course of the Nation: Next, as Trump prepares to address the Republican National Convention after surviving an assassination attempt, the nation waits to see how his speech might shape the country's future ▶️

• Fed’s Powell Sees Progress on Inflation. Focus Is Shifting Toward Employment: Finally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discusses the dual focus on inflation and employment 👷

Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert analysis and market insights. Happy trading!

It’s The Senator From Ohio 🎖️

JD Vance has been chosen to be Donald Trump’s running mate.

The obvious reason for the choice is that Ohio is a swing state.

But the other potential candidates—Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum—both provided important electoral benefits 🤔

What’s most striking about Trump’s choice is that out of the other possibilities, Vance is the youngest (age 39), the most outwardly ambitious politically, and has positioned himself to be most aligned with Trump on issues.

It’s difficult to know what of these factors tipped the balance in favor of Vance.

Markets didn’t react to the choice 🤷

Trump’s Speech Will Now Set the Course of the Nation ▶️

The Republican National Convention comes at an inflection point for the United States.

On Saturday, Trump survived an assassination attempt 🤕

He has since withdrawn from the public eye, against all expectations of his normally consuming desire to be at the center of national attention.

On Thursday, he will address the crowd that has gathered to nominate him for president.

He told a conservative journalist after the attack that he had rewritten his campaign speech set for Thursday evening, to try to bring the country together.

We will all be watching 👀

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Fed’s Powell Sees Progress on Inflation. Focus Is Shifting Toward Employment 👷

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that recent inflation readings have given officials better confidence that price growth is decelerating toward the central bank’s 2% annual target.

While he dodged a question about the implications for interest rates, he noted the inflation progress and said that policymakers are increasingly focused on signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market.

“For a long time, since inflation arrived, it’s been appropriate to focus mainly on inflation,” Powell said on Monday during an interview at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

“But now that inflation has come down and the labor market has indeed cooled.”

Powell said that the Fed won’t necessarily need to see inflation return all the way to 2% to begin lowering interest rates.

Officials just need to be confident that the data is trending in that direction.

We’re going to be looking at both mandates 👀

They’re in much better balance and that means that if we were to see an unexpected weakening in the labor market, then that might also be a reason for reaction by us.

“In the first quarter, we didn’t we didn’t make any more progress,” Powell said.

“The second quarter, actually, we did make some more progress … We’ve now had three better readings—and if you average them—that’s a pretty good pace.”

“If you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long because the tightening…is still having an effect, which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell said.

“Our test has been that we wanted to have greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down toward our 2% target … What increases that confidence is more good inflation data and, lately, we have been getting some of that.”

Powell added that he wasn’t too worried about a recession on the horizon 😌

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