Did you know that September has historically been one of the most challenging months for the stock market?

This trend, often referred to as the "September Effect," has investors on edge as they handle potential market dips and volatility.

Here’s what we have for today:

• Nvidia Jitters: First, Nvidia's stock took a hit ahead of its much-anticipated earnings report 😨

• September Looms—It Usually Brings A Chill For The Stock Market: Next, as September approaches, the stock market faces potential volatility 🍂

• Small Caps Have Popped—But Don’t Expect It To Last: Finally, small cap stocks have surged recently, but this is most likely only temporary 🤔

Stay informed with these insights as we examine the market together. Off we go!

Nvidia Jitters 😨

Nvidia stock fell on Monday ahead of its earnings on Wednesday, as it gave up some of last week’s gains.

Nvidia’s decline was in line with what looked like a marketwide rotation away from technology stocks.

The artificial-intelligence bellwether reports second-quarter earnings after the stock market closes on Wednesday.

Nvidia’s quarterly earnings and revenue are expected to more than double from a year ago 🚀

However, the real focus likely will be on its guidance for the current quarter and any clues to early demand for its next-generation Blackwell chips, which are likely to begin shipping in volume in early 2025.

Several publications have reported potential delays in the production and shipment of Nvidia’s new Blackwell chips 📦

Nvidia has not commented or confirmed this, but most indications suggest that the delays should be relatively short-lived.

September Looms—It Usually Brings A Chill For The Stock Market 🍂

The start of football season, the spread of fall foliage, and a cut to interest rates are all coming next month.

If past Septembers are any guide, a stock market selloff could be on the way, too.

There are still reasons for optimism.

The Fed appears close to achieving a soft landing.

Some of that has been reflected in stock prices, which have rebounded after a weak start in August 📈

But the rate cut, which is expected on September 18, increasingly looks like a “sell the news” event, according to many strategists and investors, particularly if the cut is a quarter percentage point instead of a half.

In prediction markets, about twice as many people are expecting a smaller cut.

The S&P 500 is trading at a relatively rich 21.2 times its expected earnings over the next four quarters.

Volatility may spike again, and investors can profit if they buy the dips again 💰

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Small Caps Have Popped—But Don’t Expect It To Last 🤔

Small cap stocks have been outperforming the market in the month of August.

Small caps have done well for two reasons.

First, the likelihood that the Fed cuts rates aggressively has increased.

Second, the bulk of the economic data has been relatively strong.

While the Fed will likely cut rates, the economy is likely to slow, which could lead to the highly indebted small cap sector to once again lag large caps 📊

Given where we are in the business cycle, investors are best served by sticking with tech and large cap exposure over the medium-term.

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