Please Remain Calm 🖐️

Did you know that after the stock market crash of 1929, it took nearly 25 years for the market to recover to its pre-crash levels, whereas after the 2008 financial crisis, major indices like the S&P 500 recovered to pre-crisis levels within just a few years?

This means that even if we were to enter an economic crisis, chances are that we might recover from it just as quickly as it arrived.

In this newsletter, we examine three economic currents:

• Modi Won’t Turn India Into A Theocracy: First, fears of India turning into a theocracy are deemed overstated, with its democracy robust and its economic goals ambitious 📜

• Not A Time To Sell: Next, we’ll point out that an all-time high isn't a sell signal. With continuous growth, 2024 looks promising for equities, challenging traditional trading wisdom ❌

• China’s Home Prices Keep Falling: Finally, the steep decline in China's housing market affects its economy and global investor sentiment 📉

These pieces provide insight into global economic trends and investment strategies, offering valuable perspectives for all interested in the dynamics of finance.

Modi Won’t Turn India Into A Theocracy 📜

With India’s Hindu nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, cruising toward a third successive term in elections this year, a clutch of activists and academics warn that the world’s largest democracy is about to degenerate into a full-blown theocracy.

To hear these observers tell it, India is morphing into a Hindu version of an Islamist autocracy like Taliban-run Afghanistan ⚔️

A theocratic India would be a disaster.

It would mark a big setback for democracy worldwide and almost certainly ensure that India fails to achieve its economic and geopolitical ambitions.

Fortunately, these fears are overblown to the point of being nonsensical 😮‍💨

Not A Time To Sell ❌

An all-time high in the stock market is not a sell signal.

It’s worth remembering that equity markets efficiently reflect earnings growth through time.

Stock prices don’t have memories.

So, barring a major negative surprise, 2024 could be a strong year for equities 💰

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China’s Home Prices Keep Falling 📉

China’s real-estate downturn is getting worse.

New home prices fell 1.24% from a year earlier, accelerating from December’s 0.89% decline, according to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on data released Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics 😱

Secondhand home prices did even worse, falling by 4.4% in January compared with a year earlier.

It was the steepest such decline in almost nine years.

The bottom for housing prices is far from being reached and it will not happen in 2024 💥

Real estate has for years been a popular investment for people in China, and the slowdown in the sector has had widespread ramifications.

Consumer confidence is near its lowest level in more than three decades, according to a government survey.

For decades, the property sector had been a major driver of China’s economic growth.

Real estate and related sectors such as construction represent around a quarter of China’s gross domestic product in recent years.

As long as the property market remains in a downtrend, it’s hard to imagine the Chinese economy will do anything other than continue to stumble 💸

Inner Circle Macro Update 🔍

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