Did you know that in 1964, the New York Stock Exchange installed its first electronic trading floor, revolutionizing how stocks were traded and paving the way for the modern stock market we know today?

Never forget though that at the end of the day, what determines success in the stock market is a combination of knowledge, discipline, and a healthy dose of long-term perspective.

Here's what you'll find in this edition:

• Watch Jobless Claims: First, recent economic data suggests that the economy may be slowing 👀

• Important Inflation Data Ahead: Next, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for May is due out soon 📊

• Best Start In An Election Year Ever: Finally, the S&P 500 is on track for its best first-half performance during an election year since 1976 🥂

Stay informed and make better trading decisions with our expert insights and analysis. Happy trading!

Watch Jobless Claims 👀

Recent economic data suggests that the economy may be slowing.

Much of the focus has been on jobless claims, which measures how many people file for unemployment each week.

For many months, claims were ranging between 200k-215k, indicating very few people were losing jobs.

Over the last two weeks, the number of people filing for unemployment has reached 240k per week, which is still indicative of a reasonably solid labor market

But, if we see it continue to trend higher, it would be cause for concern 😨

Important Inflation Data Ahead 📊

PCE inflation for May is due out on Friday.

Earlier this month, both Consumer Price Inflation and Producer Price Inflation surprised, coming in lower than expected.

This suggests that PCE data should be favorable ✔️

If the Fed sees a few more inflation readings that come in line with expectations or a bit below, the Fed may be in track to deliver a first rate cut in September.

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Best Start In An Election Year Ever 🥂

The S&P 500 SPX is on pace for its best first-half performance during an election year since 1976, as well as the second-best performance in an election year in its history.

However, many strategists and investors are now concerned that the rally has “left valuations stretched, sentiment optimistic, and the market overbought” 🤔

A number of factors leave the U.S. stock market vulnerable to a correction in the second half of the year, these analysts argue — optimistic corporate-earnings estimates, uncertainty around potential Fed rate cuts, November’s presidential election, and the narrow breadth of the market’s rally.

For the stock market to continue its rally, investors will need to see a broadening of the rally from both a price perspective and an earnings-contribution perspective.

So far this year, the stock market’s strength has mostly been driven by mega cap tech companies 💻

If the economy is achieving a soft landing and stays in positive territory, we would expect to see better participation from some of the cyclical sectors such as financials, materials and industrials.

We should watch those sectors pretty carefully; if they start to perform better, that’s how we’ll have a more sustainable rally.

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