Political Blunders 😵

Did you know the Medici Bank of the 14th century pioneered financial practices mirroring today’s banking?

This slice of history parallels today's global strategic maneuvers in finance and geopolitics.

In this newsletter, we’ll be exploring how a flawed understanding of foreign policy not only affects us, but also the world in general:

• Another Biden Foreign Policy Mess: First, we examine the fallout from lifted sanctions and its implications for global diplomacy 💥

• The Myth That Iran Has Moderate Mullahs: Next, we question the existence and influence of moderates within Iran's regime, impacting U.S. foreign policy 🤡

• Biden’s Timidity Emboldens Our Enemies: Finally, we’ll discuss the U.S.'s timid response to Middle Eastern provocations, a strategy that inevitably leads to an emboldened rival 😈

Join us as we discuss these important moments, giving you a deeper understanding of the strategies that shape global stability.

Another Biden Foreign Policy Mess💥

The Biden Administration, in hopes of freeing some additional oil supply into the market and enticing the Maduro government in Venezuela to hold free presidential elections later this year, removed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports.

Once the sanctions were lifted, Venezuela quickly reneged on its side of the bargain by banning Maria Corina Machado, the winner of the primary held by the opposition parties.

Machado is a bright, educated, charismatic candidate that enjoys enormous popularity in Venezuela who would likely trounce Maduro in a free election 🗳️

Of course, Biden’s naïve decision to lift sanctions before winning any tangible and binding concession on Maduro was bound to fail.

Many emerging market investors were equally naïve, and bought up Venezuela’s debt, in hopes of some return to rational decision making by the Venezuelan government.

As of now it’s Maduro 1 and Biden and emerging market investors 0.

Let’s see what Biden does next 👀

The Myth That Iran Has Moderate Mullahs 🤡

Ever since the Obama Presidency, the US foreign policy establishment as well as the media has pushed the idea that within the Iranian regime there are moderates, and we must seek them out and strengthen them.

Through this strategy, according to the Obama and Biden administrations, we can reach compromise and ultimately peace would ensue 🕊️

This would allow the US to withdraw from the Middle East and focus on competition with China.

If there were any moderates in Iran, which is highly doubtful, they never had any power.

The United States gave access to hundreds of billions of dollars to the Iranian regime, which it has used to fund terror networks throughout the Middle East and the world as well as to build its nuclear program ⚔️

Thankfully there is little presidents can do to undermine the US economy and financial markets.

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the President’s influence on international affairs 🌐‍

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Biden’s Timidity Emboldens Our Enemies 😈

Following the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan, the Biden Administration had no alternative but to finally strike back.

However, the US response has been restrained.

According to US officials, there was no serious consideration of striking inside Iran.

The attacks have been focused on Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria 💥

It’s clear that Biden’s overriding goal is to avoid escalation.

The Biden foreign policy fails to see that our modest responses encourage our adversaries and encourages them to manipulate our fear of conflict.

While direct conflict between the US and Iran is likely to be avoided in the near-term, the only way to deter Iran over the medium-term would be to strike the Iranian regime directly in Iran.

There is no sign whatsoever that Biden is prepared to take such a step ❌

Inner Circle Macro Update

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