- Equity Eats
- Posts
- Avoidance, Misconception and Relief 😌
Avoidance, Misconception and Relief 😌
Did you know that the art of making predictions is as old as civilization itself?
Equity Eats
February 01, 2024
Avoidance, Misconception and Relief 😌
Did you know that the art of making predictions is as old as civilization itself?
From ancient oracles to modern analysts, the quest to foresee the future has always fascinated humanity.
But in the world of finance and geopolitics, predictions are more than fascination – they're a necessity.
In this edition, we're delving into three crucial topics that shape our world and your wallet:
Avoiding Conflict Only Leads To More Pain: We examine the consequences of President Biden's strategy to avoid confrontation with Iran. It's a tale of unintended outcomes and geopolitical chess 🚨
When Base Case Scenario And Risk Case Scenarios Get Confused: Explore how Wall Street often confuses base case scenarios with risk case scenarios. A critical look at the impact of this mix-up on global financial strategies 🔄
Inflation Is Finally Where It Needs to Be: Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman shares his insights on current inflation trends and poses a challenging question about the Fed's next move 🎯
Each article is crafted to provide you with clear, concise insights into these complex issues. So, buckle up for a journey through the intertwining worlds of economics and geopolitics!
Avoiding Conflict Only Leads To More Pain 🚨
President Biden was warned repeatedly about the dangers of inaction.
U.S. soldiers tragically fell victim to a drone or missile attack in Jordan, near the Syrian border.
Three Americans killed, 34 wounded.
A heart-wrenching outcome of policy choices 💔
Over 150 Iranian proxy attacks on U.S. forces since October, with minimal U.S. response.
And who benefits from this? Iran.
Biden's strategy: Avoid confrontation with Iran at all costs.
Irony strikes hard.
The avoidance of confrontation leads to an inevitable, more painful clash ⚡
When Base Case Scenario And Risk Case Scenarios Get Confused 🔄
National Security Analysts: Experts in geopolitical risks, not in painting optimistic pictures.
After government careers, many become private sector risk consultants 🏢
Their focus: Risks, not opportunities.
These same people are hired for their risk analysis expertise by Wall Street 💼
And Wall Street's dialogue reveals a deep fear of geopolitical risks.
But there's a mix-up: they're confusing base case scenarios with risk case scenarios.
Example: The U.S.-Iran conflict.
Base case: No war between the U.S. and Iran 🕊️
Risk case: A potential, but unlikely, war ⚠️
Wall Street seems to reverse these scenarios.
💰 Your New Income Generator 💰
Get an exclusive sneak peek into this secret income generator - Right In Your Pocket
1. Blow Away The Competition: Use this little-known stock market loophole to make $500-$1,000 DAILY.
2. Streamlined Trading System: This 5-step system is so easy to learn that anyone from college dropouts to 80-year-old grandmas can get started with it.
3. No Experience Or Equipment Needed: All you need is your phone or laptop, an internet connection, and 1-2 hours a day, and you’ll be ready to get going.
If you’d like to know more, sign up now for a free training that shows you exactly how you can get started.
Inflation Is Finally Where It Needs to Be 🎯
Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman heralds a major milestone: "Fed's 2% inflation target achieved!"
His claim: The real inflation rate is not as high as reported, hovering between 1.5% and 1.7%. 📉
Schwarzman's perspective finds support in the data.
Detailed analysis reveals: 6-month annualized core PCE inflation at 1.9%, and a 3-month rate at just 1.5% 📊
What does this mean for the Federal Reserve's strategy?
The reluctance to reduce interest rates might not stem from inflation worries 🤔
Could it be a cautious approach to managing a surging stock market?
Is it merely a balancing act between stimulating the economy and avoiding market overheating?
This scenario poses a crucial question for the Fed's future decisions:
Is it time for a strategic shift in response to these new insights?
