Keep Calm And Carry On Investing 💰

Did you know that during the Great Depression, the Dow fell nearly 90% from its peak, yet rebounded?

Did you know that during the Great Depression, the Dow fell nearly 90% from its peak, yet rebounded?

This shows that even when people think the end of the world has come, the market has an uncanny ability to bounce back.

In this edition of Equity Eats, we explore key stock market dynamics, this time with a bonus investment strategy:

  • Off To A Bumpy Start To The Quarter: First, despite rising bond yields putting stocks on the defensive, historical trends suggest a recovery as the economy stabilizes and inflation aligns with targets 😵

  • Buffett Buying Back Stock: Next, Berkshire Hathaway's valuation peak and increased buybacks signal Warren Buffett’s confidence, despite market highs 💲

  • This Investing Strategy Can Help Calm Your Anxiety About the Stock Market: Finally, find out more about a systematic investment approach that reduces risk and emotional investment stress 🧠

Join us for insights and strategies designed to enhance your trading skills and financial well-being.

Off To A Bumpy Start To The Quarter 😵

April began with a bumpy start.

Economic data remains strong.

The big thinkers at the Fed are indicating that they can be patient and are in no rush to cut interest rates.

Bond yields are rising, and stocks started the quarter off on the back foot.

We’ve seen this pattern before 👀

Stocks never respond well to an abrupt back-up in bond yields 📉

But once the dust settles and the adjustment is over, we return to the same story.

The economy is healthy, and inflation is slowly converging back to the Fed’s inflation target, and that’s ultimately a good backdrop for stocks 📈

Buffett Buying Back Stock 💲

Berkshire Hathaway valuation, based on a key financial measure, has risen to a six-year high.

Shares of Warren Buffett’s investment conglomerate handily outperformed the S&P 500 during the first quarter.

Berkshire is now trading at an estimated 1.6 times March 31 book value compared to 1.4 times at the end of 2023 and an average of 1.4 times over the past five years 🚀

Some analysts argue that with Berkshire trading at a six 6 year high, that could mean more limited gains for the stock for the rest of 2024, given that investors have long used that number as a valuation yardstick, even though Buffett has de-emphasized it in recent years.

Berkshire’s class B shares were up 18% in the first quarter, so how could such gains not cool-off during the remainder of the year?

But Buffett himself has signaled that he still thinks Berkshire stock is appealing, and that’s the best vote of confidence of all 🥇

The company stepped up its purchases of its own stock in late February and early March.

Berkshire bought back about $2.3 billion of stock in the first quarter through March 6, according to a Barron’s calculation based on its reported share count on that date.

That suggests perhaps $3 billion of stock buybacks for the entire first quarter, up from $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter 💰

There were about $9 billion of repurchases last year.

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This Investing Strategy Can Help Calm Your Anxiety About the Stock Market 🧠

Dollar-cost averaging.

Set up a plan to invest portions of your income at regular intervals.

Buying low and selling high is the investing ideal, but it’s impossible to do with any consistency, even for Wall Street professionals 🧐

Instead, it’s best to dollar-cost average, especially in a frothy market like the current one where nothing is cheap.

Markets tend to go up roughly three out of every four years, which means investing a lump sum at the beginning of the year will pay off more over time than not.

But there are two problems 🔍

The first is that we never know what the markets will do in any particular year.

The second is that people tend to have an emotional attachment to money, and seeing a new investment evaporate in a market rout is painful.

If you put a bunch of money into an investment account and then the market drops 10% the next week, how likely are you going to be to want to invest in the future?

Fortunately, dollar-cost averaging takes fear out of the equation 😌

If you contribute to an employer-sponsored retirement account like a 401(k), chances are you are already dollar-cost averaging, since you are investing money at a steady cadence with each paycheck.

But you can also use the strategy in your individual retirement accounts or taxable brokerage accounts via automatic transfers or setting a recurring calendar reminder 🗓️

While dollar-cost averaging is the go-to strategy for many investors during all market cycles, advisors say dolling out your investment over time makes the most sense when prices are high.

You are smoothing out your returns, taking advantage of any more upswing to come, but also not risking a massive drop after you have invested a lump sum.

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