Did you know that during the hyperinflation of the early 1920s in Germany, prices doubled every few days, making it cheaper to burn money for warmth than to buy firewood?

While today’s economic landscape is far less extreme, understanding inflation and employment trends remains crucial for smart trading decisions.

In this edition of our newsletter, we dive into three key topics:

• Good Inflation News: First, we’ll discover why recent reports suggest inflation is on the decline 👍

• How Can You Say Inflation Is No Longer A Problem? Next, we’ll learn about the deceleration of inflation rates and how this impacts the overall price level 🤔

• Watch Initial Jobless Claims Data: Finally, we’ll look into the importance of weekly jobless claims data and what recent trends indicate about the job market 📊

Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert insights and strategic guidance. Happy trading!

Good Inflation News 👍

Inflation pessimists have argued for the last three years that inflation won’t come down, and a recession is needed to curb these sticky prices.

But we’ve seen two consecutive good inflation reports, and we appear to be headed for more good inflation data by the end of the month.

It hasn’t paid to be a skeptic that inflation is on the descent and there is even less reason to be skeptical now 🤷🏻

How Can You Say Inflation Is No Longer A Problem? 🤔

Inflation was a big problem from 2021 through July of 2023, but it has steadily been decelerating.

The price level is still high.

Prices never return to prior levels and the general price level doesn’t decline.

However, the rate at which prices are rising is now back to normal, and that’s what it means when we say inflation is no longer a problem 😌

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Watch Initial Jobless Claims Data 📊

Each Thursday the government publishes a key piece of economic data known as Initial Jobless Claims.

For most of the past two years, roughly 215k people per week have been filing for unemployment claims.

Last week the figure increased to 242k.

The sweet spot for claims is in the range of 215k-to-240k, which indicates a jobs market that is not too hot and not too cold ⚖️

Above 240k, one starts to worry about a sharp economic slowdown.

Stay tuned in the weeks ahead 📅

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