Is Inflation Really A Threat? 📉

Did you know that the stock market has weathered numerous storms and yet remains one of the most reliable wealth-building tools over the long term?

Did you know that the stock market has weathered numerous storms and yet remains one of the most reliable wealth-building tools over the long term?

This means that making smart investment decisions involves tuning out any doom-and-gloom preachers coming your way, even if they may seem convincing.

Here’s what we have in store for you today:

  • The Inflation Hawks Refuse To Bend: First, despite signs of economic normalization, prominent voices continue to warn about inflation and potential interest rate hikes 😤

  • Three Stocks Represent 20% Of The S&P 500 Weighting, So What? Next, we explore the concentration of market capitalization in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, and why concerns about concentration risk might be overblown 🤷🏻

  • Labor Market Is Cooling: Finally, analysis of jobless claims and job openings data reveals a cooling labor market, which could lead the Fed to ease monetary policy later this year 🧊

Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our expert insights and practical advice.

P.S. Due to an upcoming Jewish Holiday, Shavuot, there will not be a newsletter tomorrow and on Thursday. Don’t worry though, we’ll be back on Friday with fresh insights from the market, so stay tuned!

The Inflation Hawks Refuse To Bend 😤

For much of the last two years, there have been loud and prominent voices in the world of finance that have been warning us.

“The economy is too hot!” 

“High wage growth is ticking even higher!” 

“A higher neutral interest rate is a given!”

“The Fed will not cut rates in 2024!”

“The Fed will actually have to hike interest rates in 2024!”

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US economy is normalizing on all fronts, and yet the inflation hawks are still clinging to their views ⛈️

Three Stocks Represent 20% Of The S&P 500 Weighting, So What? 🤷🏻

Nvidia is now the third stock to hit the 3 trillion market cap size.

The other two are Microsoft and Apple.

The financial media is worried about concentration risk.

The concern is way overdone 🙅🏻

First, the S&P 500 is doing well overall, not just three stocks.

Second, these companies are earnings machines with no end in sight to their success.

They have earned their large market capitalization and will continue to do so 📈

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Labor Market Is Cooling 🧊

Initial jobless claims and job openings data has been signaling a cooling of the labor market. 

Also, the May jobs report provides further confirmation that labor markets are cooling and wage gains are moderating.

The Fed should be gaining confidence that inflation will soon trend down closer to its 2% inflation target, enabling it to ease policy between September and December of this year 📅

Inner Circle Global Macro Update 🔍

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