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- Inflation Cooling, Markets Heating Up 🔥
Inflation Cooling, Markets Heating Up 🔥
Did you know that since the 1980s, the global economy has experienced several "mini" stock market crashes, but long-term upward trends have remained intact?
Did you know that since the 1980s, the global economy has experienced several "mini" stock market crashes, but long-term upward trends have remained intact?
Market corrections are natural and temporary; staying invested through volatility can lead to long-term gains.
Here's what we have in store for you today:
Why Cooling Inflation Is Not A Problem For Earnings: First, we’ll talk about why the cooling inflation trend isn't detrimental to corporate earnings 😌
A Broadening Stock Market Rally: Next, we’ll examine the broadening rally beyond the major tech stocks 📢
Good Macro Environment For A Continued Rally: Finally, we’ll learn what favorable macroeconomic conditions looks like ✔️
Stay tuned as we unpack these topics and more, giving you the knowledge to understand the stock market’s current situation. Off we go!
Why Cooling Inflation Is Not A Problem For Earnings 😌
While U.S. stock-market investors have cheered cooling inflation, some have worried it could be bad news for equities — as disinflation may take away companies’ pricing power and hurt their future earnings.
But there is no statistical evidence to support the argument that disinflation could be a headwind to the financial health of American companies.
It’s demand and economic growth that drive corporate earnings rather than pricing — since pricing has simply been a lagging indicator.
While a company’s revenue has shown strong correlation to both the consumer-price index and producer-price index, both have absolutely no correlation to earnings growth ❌
Instead, real GDP growth has the highest correlation with the S&P 500’s quarterly earnings growth.
A Broadening Stock Market Rally 📢
While the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech stocks may be getting most of the credit for driving the S&P 500 to ever-greater heights this year, the other 493 companies are expected to post their first year-over-year quarterly earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2022.
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Good Macro Environment For A Continued Rally ✔️
A gradually cooling economy, decelerating inflation, a Fed poised to cut interest rates, and earnings acceleration should be an ideal market setup for U.S. stocks.
Historically, a slowing GDP and accelerating EPS (earnings-per-share) backdrop has been the best macro environment for stocks.
Inner Circle Global Macro Update 🔍
If you wish to gain access to our Inner Circle Global Macro Update, packed with exclusive insights from award-winning portfolio manager and economist Seth Antiles, with secrets that’ll give you an edge in the stock market, be sure to upgrade by clicking the button below 👇️