Did you know that during the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 lost 57% of its value from its peak?

Market downturns are part of the game, so having a strategy for these periods is essential.

Here’s what you can expect in this issue:

• The Oil Play Continues To Underwhelm: First, we’ll look at the latest developments in the oil market 🛢️

• Invest In Tech Giants For Their Dividends. Seriously: Next, we’ll explore why investing in tech giants for their dividend growth might be a smart move 💰

• The Manic Prognosticators: Finally, we’ll explain why you should ignore the noise from analysts who change their prognosis at the flip of a coin 🤬

Stay tuned for expert analysis and practical tips to help you invest in the financial markets with confidence. Let’s go!

The Oil Play Continues To Underwhelm 🛢️

For energy investors, things have turned from bad to worse.

OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, announced that they would keep some 3.6mn barrels of oil a day off the market until the end of next year.

That might sound like good news, but the market was more concerned about oil that will be added to the global supply—an additional 2.2 million barrels that eight countries were holding back from the market 👀

It’s expected to start coming back online this fall as they gradually ramp up toward full production.

This comes as the newest baseline for the United Arab Emirates suggests its production could increase by as much as 300,000 barrels a day next year.

Given that energy demand has been relatively weak in recent weeks, the news sparked concerns of a coming oversupply of crude, even as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East remain potential flashpoints ⚔️

Invest In Tech Giants For Their Dividends. Seriously 💰

Shares of the tech giants have dominated stock returns over the past year.

That’s great, but big gains always lead to investor anxiety about whether or not they can continue.

Sales and revenue growth might already be baked into current valuations, but dividend growth might not be.

The trillion-dollar stocks Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta were up an average of 66% over the past twelve months.

The group trades for at 32 times estimated 2024 earnings, compared to the market’s 22 times multiple.

There’s a good reason for this, of course ✔️

Wall Street projects about 25% average earnings growth for the stocks in the next few years, about twice the rate of the overall S&P 500.

Faster growth supports bigger valuation multiples now—and should also translate into above-average dividend growth.

And dividend growth alone can be enough to justify higher stock prices for patient investors.

Take Microsoft.

In 10 years, if it grows and pays out cash flow like a typical company, a shareholder could be getting about $4 per quarter, up from 75 cents today.

That’s an 18% average growth rate 📈

A $16 annual dividend implies a stock price of about $1,100, assuming the current market dividend yield stays constant.

The current share price is about $430.

Similar math works for four of the six stocks.

Amazon doesn’t pay a dividend, but should.

Nvidia pays only a token one.

High valuations are always a concern for investors.

Cash flow and dividend payout growth can be the antidote 🤑

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The Manic Prognosticators 🤬

The same analysts will one day fret about how sharply the market has declined and the very next day warn of a “melt-up” in the stock market on excessive optimism.

They seem to forget that the stock market is volatile, and swings up and down by 0.50% are frequent.

In fact such swings occur 70% of the time 🎢

The best thing to do is tune out the noise, accept the volatility, and remain invested in good ETFs.

Inner Circle Global Macro Update 🔍

If you wish to gain access to our Inner Circle Global Macro Update, packed with exclusive insights from award-winning portfolio manager and economist Seth Antiles, with secrets that’ll give you an edge in the stock market, be sure to upgrade by clicking the button below 👇️