Hold On And Be Strong 💪

Did you know that economic cycles are like waves, with highs and lows reflecting prosperity and downturns?

This analogy underscores the importance of understanding these patterns for effective trading.

In this edition, we’ll be examining the following:

• Double Standards When It Comes To Israel: First, we discuss the geopolitical challenges faced by Israel, especially considering the hypocritical criticisms they receive 😤

• How Much Of A Risk Is Commercial Real Estate To The Economy: Next, the focus shifts to the impact of vacant commercial real estate on the economy post-Covid-19 🏢

• Will The Last Disinflationary Mile Be The Hardest: Finally, we examine the hurdles of achieving stable disinflation, analyzing recent inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's response ⏳

These articles offer insights into the complexities of today's economic landscape, guiding you through the nuances of market dynamics and policy impacts.

Double Standards When It Comes To Israel 😤

The media and governments around the world are obsessed with stopping Israel from invading Rafah, the location where 100% of Hamas’s fighters and leadership are now located.

This is tantamount to asking the United States to halt their fighting and not enter Berlin in order to save the Nazis during WWII.

Of course, there is no sound logic to this line of thought 🤯

When it comes to Israel, the world always seems to lose proper perspective and logic, which would never happen to any other country and their right to defend themselves.

Israel should ignore the critiques and proceed with their plans to destroy Hamas.

We will all be better served and safer by Israel’s courageousness 🛡️

How Much Of A Risk Is Commercial Real Estate To The Economy 🏢

Many office buildings remain largely vacant since Covid-19 struck.

At first, owners hoped to wait out the pandemic, but workers were slow to return, so employers ended up downsizing.

Vacancy rates, especially in shabbier buildings, have rocketed.

Recently, a number of office buildings in big cities have traded at less than half their pre-pandemic prices.

These sorts of losses will wipe out many owners’ equity, leaving banks to swallow hefty losses of their own 📉

But there is a limit to how big a problem offices can pose, even if the damage to them is severe.

Office space is worth only about 6% of the total value of property in America.

The US economy offers extra protection.

Look up at New York’s skyscrapers and it is easy to feel alarmed.

But cast your gaze back to street level and you can calm yourself.

The streets are bustling.

Shops are packed.

Restaurants are full.

America is on the move, even though there is indeed a crisis in the office space segment of the real estate market 💰

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Will The Last Disinflationary Mile Be The Hardest? ⏳

Inflation in the United States peaked in July of 2023, and in nearly every month since then, inflation has trended down.

When inflation rises at a slower rate, it is called disinflation.

Those who have argued that the Fed should keep raising interest rates have argued that inflation will be sticky and very soon, disinflation will come to an end ❌

At long last, this crowd had something to cheer—January inflation came in higher than expected.

Most likely this is just a blip, and after a month or two, we will see inflation ease back down and allow the Fed to cut rates.

But for the moment, we are bound to hear “the last disinflationary mile will be the hardest” 😵‍

Inner Circle Macro Update 🔍

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