Did you know that U.S. recessions tend to follow tightening interest rate cycles, typically starting within 12-18 months of peak rates?

Pay attention to Federal Reserve policy—interest rate decisions often signal major economic shifts.

In this edition of the newsletter, we’ll cover:

• Bounce Back? First, the S&P 500 just had its worst week since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank 🤔

• The Candidates Take To The Debate Stage – What Harris Needs To Do: Next, we’ll cover what Harris will need to do to secure a successful debate 🔵

• The Candidates Take To The Debate Stage – What Trump Needs To Do: Finally, we’ll look at what Trump must do to come out on top 🔴

This edition provides key insights into the markets and the political arena—two forces that shape our economic landscape. Off we go!

Bounce Back? 🤔

The S&P 500 is coming off its worst week since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023.

There doesn’t seem to be any optimists left, at least regarding the near-term outlook for stocks.

Typically, when views are so informally tilting in one direction, the market does just the opposite of what everyone thinks.

So beware of a possible bounce back 📈

The Candidates Take To The Debate Stage – What Harris Needs To Do 🔵

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will go toe to toe this evening.

Typically, presidential debates are not very consequential in terms of determining the outcomes of presidential elections.

The Trump-Biden debate was certainly an exception.

Tonight’s debate may be another exception.

Kamala Harris’ entry into the race led to a strong recovery for the Democratic candidate, but her support seems to be slipping 📉

She has shied away from interviews and answering tough questions.

Trump is a well-known entity, but Harris is less known, and she needs to demonstrate competence as well as moderation in policy.

Otherwise, her support will continue to fade.

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The Candidates Take To The Debate Stage – What Trump Needs To Do 🔴

Donald Trump has a strong base of support among his enthusiastic followers.

But he is also very much disliked by his detractors.

Therefore, his support won’t decline much, but his popularity rating is capped at a relatively low level.

The presidential race will be determined by that small percentage of the electorate that has not yet decided for whom they will vote 🤷

While Harris must show competence and moderation, Trump needs to control himself from making unforced errors, stay away from personal attacks, and expose Harris’ hard left wing policy preferences.

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