Did you know the first U.S. stock market crash in 1792 was sparked by speculative trading?

The market of those times mirrors today’s economic ups and downs, meaning there’s a need for balance between risk and reward in our financial systems.

This edition of our newsletter cuts through the complexity of current financial landscapes with clear, expert analysis:

• Inflation Holds The Key: First, Fed Chair Powell’s strategy of patience amidst inflation fluctuations suggests a cautious path forward for interest rate adjustments 🗝️

• A Strong Economy Gives The Fed Some Cushion: Next, confidence from the Fed’s top brass underscores a robust economy, hinting at a strategic delay in interest rate cuts 😌

• Equity Markets Are In A good Place Despite Higher March Inflation: Finally, despite inflationary concerns, the stock market is supported by solid economic fundamentals, suggesting resilience against downturns 🥇

We aim to sharpen your financial understanding with these insights, helping you to navigate through uncertainty with clarity and confidence.

Inflation Holds The Key 🗝️

Fed Chair Powell has spoken:

The Fed can be patient.

It is in no rush to cut interest rates, and with the March inflation report running hot, the Fed simply has no other choice ❌

The Fed likely still expects that inflation will cool in the months ahead, and if the data plays out as expected, the Fed may still cut.

But there is little chance they will move until it's crystal clear that inflation has turned down 📉

A Strong Economy Gives The Fed Some Cushion 😌

The two most influential members of the Fed, Chair Powell and Christopher Waller, have both expressed confidence that the Fed will ultimately reduce interest rates this year.

But both have also made clear that the Fed does not need to rush, because the economy remains strong and the unemployment rate remains low 💰

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Equity Markets Are In A Good Place Despite Higher March Inflation 🥇

Many investors and analysts make the case that the stock market is “priced for perfection.”

Any little hiccup will cause equities to tumble 💥

Maybe the Fed won’t cut interest rates because the economy is too strong.

Maybe the economy will soften and earnings will disappoint.

Or maybe the economy will experience the soft landing that the Fed expects, but corporate earnings will still disappoint.

Of course there are risks.

When have we ever lived in a world without risk? 😱

If we do get a correction in the stock market, it will be short-lived, buyers will quickly come back in, because economic fundamentals are not perfect, but they are certainly good enough to conclude that we are nowhere close to a bear market 🐻

Inner Circle Macro Update 🔍

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