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Did you know that investor sentiment can often be a contrarian indicator for the stock market?
Did you know that investor sentiment can often be a contrarian indicator for the stock market?
When confidence is low, as it is now, it can signal the early stages of a bull market
Here’s what we have for you today:
Americans Are Grumpy About The Economy—It’s Bullish For Stocks: First, low confidence among American consumers may actually indicate that the current bull market still has room to grow 📈
Ignore The Noise: Next, the strength of U.S. markets and corporations continues to offer long-term opportunities for investors 😌
China Is Not A Threat To Overtake The US Economy: Finally, America’s leadership in technology and innovation remains unmatched 💵
Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our market insights. Are you ready?
Americans Are Grumpy About The Economy—It’s Bullish For Stocks 📈
Americans don’t seem too thrilled about the economy.
That may sound like bad news, but for investors, it may be a good sign for the stock market.
Although data released last week from the University of Michigan sentiment survey showed a slight improvement in sentiment for the second straight month thanks to waning inflationary pressures, confidence remains relatively low.
At a reading of just under 70, that is nearly 45% lower than where bull markets most frequently have ended in the past 📉
There are probably still considerable stock market returns to be gained from additional confidence restoration before this Bull market ends.
Sentiment was frothy just before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the 2008-09 financial crisis, the 2000 dot-com bubble collapse, and the 1987 stock market crash.
In other words, Americans are often too bullish at market tops.
But a Greenspan-ian level of “irrational exuberance” is lacking today.
That’s a good thing 👍
Confidence remains lower than 88% of the time since the 1950s and is at a level which has normally been associated with the “beginning” of a new bull market.
Ignore The Noise 😌
There seems to be too much doom and gloom about the future of the U.S. economy and financial markets.
There are risks in the short-term, including whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing and the fiscal outlook depending on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the presidential election.
But investors should ignore the political noise in the near term 🔇
There’s little reason to believe that the combination of open markets, strong institutions and strong and innovative US corporations won’t continue to produce superior returns over time.
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China Is Not A Threat To Overtake The US Economy 💵
Concerns that China could overtake the U.S. as the world’s preeminent economic power are wildly exaggerated.
The U.S. will remain the leader in emerging technologies such as robotics, biotech, and artificial intelligence.
Don’t bet against America’s companies.
U.S. companies are the most reliable engines for innovation and growth in the world 💪
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