Did you know that in 1923, Germany experienced hyperinflation so severe that the price of a loaf of bread rose from 250 marks in January to 200 trillion marks by November?

This historical event underscores the devastating impact that uncontrolled inflation can have on an economy.

Today’s edition includes highlights from the following:

• Consumers Are Spending But Short Sellers Are Betting Against Retail Stocks: First, despite consumer spending, skepticism grows among investors regarding retail stocks amid inflation 👀

• The Only Nation In The World That Isn’t Allowed To Defend Itself: Next, we’ll take a look at Israel's resilience and its struggle for self-defense rights amidst global criticism 🛡️

• Inflation Higher Than Anyone Wanted In January And February: Finally, early-year inflation challenges the Fed, affecting policy and stock market dynamics 📈

We aim to demystify these financial topics, guiding our readers through the changes of the economy.

Consumers Are Spending But Short Sellers Are Betting Against Retail Stocks 👀

Investors have heard it all before about the resilience of American consumers.

But with inflation continuing to pinch household budgets, some investors seem to think that retail stocks are about to fall 📉

According to S&P Global Intelligence, short interest in consumer discretionary stocks rose to 5.6% of shares outstanding through mid-February, the highest level in five months.

This increase in bearish bets against retailers and other consumer stocks could be “a sign that investors believe inflation is unlikely to significantly ease in the near term,” the S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts said 🤔

The Only Nation In The World That Isn’t Allowed To Defend Itself 🛡️

What does Israel have to do to be allowed by the rest of the world to defend itself?

The effort by some governments, officials and much of the media in the U.S. and Europe are relentless in their attacks against Israel, and they seek to deny the Jewish state the right to defend itself against enemies that actively seek to destroy it ⚔️

Fortunately, Israel doesn’t need the West’s permission to protect itself.

Unlike in the 1930s and 1940s, the Jews have a state and a powerful army.

The West never seems to learn 🤯

What starts with the Jews never ends with the Jews.

Israel is on the front lines against an evil force that seeks to destroy all that is good in the world 👿

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Inflation Higher Than Anyone Wanted In January And February 📈

What is the implication of higher inflation prints in January and February?

The worst-case scenario is probably that the Fed will need to keep rates on hold for longer, meaning the first rate cut gets pushed out from June to some time in the fourth quarter or even early next year 🗓️

But given the strength in the economy, we don’t seem to be in urgent need of rate cuts from the Fed right now.

It isn’t that inflation is becoming a problem again, it’s more that it’s proving to be more “sticky” in January and February than it had been in recent prior months.

Bottom line is that the Fed will stay on hold for longer.

The stock market won’t get the steroid infusion of imminent rate cuts, which may turn out to be better for the sustainability of the bull market 🐂

Inner Circle Macro Update 🔍

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