Did you know that construction industry growth often serves as a leading indicator for economic recovery?

This can be clearly seen in Germany's recent boost from construction and manufacturing.

In this edition of our newsletter, we’ll be discussing the following:

• Is The Oil Price Spike Over: First, recent geopolitical shifts have caused dramatic fluctuations in oil prices, highlighting the unpredictability of markets in response to global conflicts 🛢️

• Green Shoots In Europe: Next, surprising increases in German factory production signal potential economic resilience, challenging earlier forecasts of a slowdown 🚀

• Is Japan Back To Long Run Corporate Profit Growth: Finally, Japan's stock market has hit a 34-year high, but faces ongoing challenges due to demographic and fiscal pressures 📈

Sit back, relax, and get ready for a fresh batch of economic wisdom!

Is The Oil Price Spike Over? 🛢️

Oil prices have reflected investor perceptions of geopolitical risk, but even the best investors are notoriously bad at analyzing international politics.

As oil prices broke above $91 per barrel on Brent Crude oil, strategists and investors began recommending long oil positions.

However, just as they were jumping on the bandwagon of the oil trade, oil prices dropped as Israel announced a pullout of troops from Gaza 📉

It’s not clear how long the pullout will last, but it’s clear that investors and oil analysts remain as bad as ever at reading the tea leaves of international politics.

Oil prices are now back down to $85 per barrel 💵

Green Shoots In Europe 🚀

German industry has rebounded more strongly than expected at the start of this year after factory production grew at the fastest rate for a year in February, thanks to strong growth in construction and car making.

The 2.1 per cent monthly increase in output was the second month of solid growth for German industry after growth was revised up to 1.3 per cent in January.

The rise was well above the 0.3 per cent rise forecast in a poll of economic forecasts.

The recent pick-up in German industry reduces the chances of Europe’s largest economy shrinking again in the first quarter of 2024 💸

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Is Japan Back To Long Run Corporate Profit Growth? 📈

The Japanese stock market has finally reached all-time highs after 34 years.

The question is: Will the gains continue, or is there a chance that the stock may now languish? 🤷🏻

The answer to the question largely depends on whether or not Japanese corporations can continue to pass through price increases in the face of long-standing structural challenges, including an aging population and high government debt levels in the context of a society where there is no immigration.

It's hard to imagine that strong equity performance can be sustained over the long run with these challenges 😵

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