Did you know that the U.S. stock market often experiences a “presidential cycle” effect, where the market tends to perform better in the second half of a president's term?

Historical patterns can provide guidance, but it’s still important to pay attention to current events.

Today, we’ll be looking at these topics:

• The Democratic Party Establishment Wants Biden Gone: First, we take a deep look into the current political chaos within the Democratic Party ❌

• Macron Loses As The Left Rises In France: Next, we’ll analyze the recent French elections and how the rise of the left might impact President Macron's political future and economic policies ✊

• Positivity Bias: Finally, we’ll give you a short but powerful reminder of the importance of maintaining a positive mindset 👍

Stay tuned as we go through these topics, giving you the insights and strategies you need to succeed in your investments. Ready for lift-off?

The Democratic Party Establishment Wants Biden Gone ❌

The Democratic-media establishment wants Biden out of the presidential race.

President Biden’s interview on Friday with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos was a portrait in defiance that won’t stop the establishment campaign unfolding against him.

The media that had supported him throughout his presidency has turned with a vengeance.

The New York Times and Washington Post have suddenly discovered that the debate wasn’t merely a “bad night.”

Now they tell us that there have been many such episodes of demonstrable cognitive decline.

Who knew?

Well, the American people knew, since they are not oblivious to evidence they can see 👀

They have said so in every poll for a year.

But the debate has forced the establishment to admit the truth they could no longer deny.

The Times, the Atlantic, the New Yorker, CNN, Morning Joe, Politico, Axios, the Hollywood and Wall Street donors—the gang’s all here, moving in sync to cover their coverup tracks.

Now that Mr. Biden looks like a loser to Donald Trump, Joe has got to go.

Elected Democrats have been more cautious, but those defections have also begun.

The goal is to protect Democrats running for re-election in states where a Trump tide could engulf them.

The decisive moment will come when the Obama wing of the establishment turns.

Barack Obama’s early post-debate backing—“Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know”—has become studied silence.

His former adviser, David Axelrod, all but said on CNN Friday night, more in sorrow than anger, that the end is nigh for the President.

Biden may continue to resist, as he did on Friday night with Stephanopoulos.

But the longer he does, the more brutal the establishment campaign will become 😫

The President’s every word will be scrutinized for mistakes, his every step examined for signs of Dementia, Parkinson’s or some other malady.

This is not a man who will be able to persuade Democrats that he can stand up to Mr. Trump’s assaults for the next four months—nor persuade the public that he can withstand the rigors of the office and deal with Vladimir Putin until he’s 86 years old.

Democrats know that as long as Mr. Biden remains in the race, the news cycle will be dominated by his infirmities.

Even if Mr. Biden defies the establishment and marches to the nomination, Democratic divisions and unhappiness will be an almost daily story.

Trump might help Biden’s cause now and then by reminding voters why they dislike him.

But there is little that can stop the momentum against Biden.

The establishment consensus is already forming that the only alternative is Vice President Kamala Harris.

There will be some grumbling that she also trails Mr. Trump in the polls, and she will have to defend inflation and other parts of Biden’s record.

Democrats would do better to have an open contest and settle it at the convention, which would grip the world’s attention 🎤

But the establishment in a party that reveres identity politics will fear taking the nomination away from a minority woman.

That argument is for another day.

For now, the nation waits for Biden to withdraw.

Macron Loses As The Left Rises In France ✊

So much for the right-wing takeover of the French Republic.

French voters on Sunday appear to have handed a narrow plurality to the political left while producing a divided National Assembly.

None of this will make life easier for French President Emmanuel Macron, who was the main architect of this political muddle.

The leftist coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) was on track to win 180 seats in the 577-member National Assembly.

President Macron’s centrist coalition was poised to secure 159 seats, while Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN) and its allies were projected to win 143 seats.

Everyone but the left is a loser here 😞

Macron impulsively called this snap election after the RN’s strong showing in European Parliament elections in June in an attempt to weaken his political rivals on the right.

Whereas those European elections usually are protest votes, Macron hoped voters would abandon the RN if control of the national government was at stake.

That gamble worked in the sense that the RN has fared worse than expected in Sunday's second round when voters in most districts faced a binary choice between Ms. Le Pen’s party and someone—anyone—else.

That may humble Ms. Le Pen for a while.

But the RN still has increased its seat count in the newly elected National Assembly from 87 in the last one, and everyone will remember that RN and its allies led last weekend’s first round with 33% of the vote.

Macron certainly isn’t a winner 👎

His anyone-but-Le Pen strategy for Sunday’s second round led him to forge an embarrassing alliance with a motley assortment of parties on the left (ranging from the moderate to the offensive) that will make him a lame duck for the rest of his Presidency.

Macron’s party’s drop to second place in the new assembly shows that for many voters, this became an anyone-but-Macron strategy.

French voters are as worried as ever about immigration, assimilation, crime and an aloof political class of which Macron is the best representative.

He was able to blunt Le Pen’s challenge from the right only by working to elect parties that will happily harass him from the left.

The most immediate consequence is that Macron’s economic-revival agenda is dead.

The left-wing parties are fervently opposed to his signature pension and labor-market reforms, more so than Ms. Le Pen is 😤

The investors who freaked out at the prospect that Le Pen’s party would blow up the public finances are about to discover things can be much worse.

Paris’s attitudes on some issues such as support for Ukraine are unlikely to change much.

But on other issues that matter to allies, including the urgent need to increase defense spending, don’t be so sure.

And note that to freeze out a party of the right sometimes accused of antisemitism, Macron made common cause with a leftist coalition that included La France Insoumise, a far-left party that has a genuine antisemitism problem surrounding its views on Israel and Gaza ✡️

Macron’s bet that voters remain uncertain enough about Le Pen that they’d think twice before electing her party.

But his informal partners may prove as off-putting to voters the more the French see them in action.

Macron and his unlikely allies have three years until the next presidential election to prove they’re better than Le Pen would be at solving the problems that matter to voters.

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Positivity Bias 👍

Attitude is everything.

Every situation provides an opportunity.

Do something positive with every moment 😊

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