Did you know that the time it took to deliver Nvidia's flagship AI chips was once as long as 50 weeks?

In a world where milliseconds can mean millions, even a week's delay can have huge consequences in the market.

In this edition of Equity Eats, we're diving deep into the US stock market and the global economy:

• Nvidia Stock Stutters, And It Isn’t A Demand Problem: First, despite a robust demand outstripping supply for Nvidia's H100 and H200 AI chips, Nvidia shares have shown remarkable growth 💻

• Fed’s Loretta Mester Says Three Rate Cuts Still Reasonable: Next, with the Federal Reserve's signal of potential rate cuts, we dissect Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s insights and what it means for the market's direction in the near term 🤔

• Is China's Economy Bottoming Out: Finally, is China's economy finally seeing the light at the end of a long tunnel? 🐉

Stay informed, stay ahead, and navigate the ups-and-downs of the market with us.

Nvidia Stock Stutters, And It Isn’t A Demand Problem 💻

Demand for Nvidia’s current flagship H100 and H200 AI chips remains ahead of supply and likely will do so until the end of the year.

The lead time—the time from placing an order to receiving it—for the graphics-processing units is now less than 30 weeks, down from their peak of 40-50 weeks.

That suggests that there shouldn’t be any worries about a gap in orders before the release of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips 📈

Nvidia’s stumble looks to be nothing about Nvidia specifically, but the fall is in line with the rise in US bond yields that is driving markets lower across the board.

Nvidia shares have risen 82% this year compared to a 9.9% rise in the S&P 500 🚀

Fed’s Loretta Mester Says Three Rate Cuts Still Reasonable 🤔

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she continued to pencil in three rate cuts this year as part of the quarterly dot plot submitted at the Fed’s FOMC meeting in March, the same as in December.

That put Mester among the narrow majority of 10 officials who had penciled in at least three cuts this year, versus the nine who saw two or fewer cuts as likely to be appropriate under the most likely forecast for the economy.

Mester said she was in no hurry to cut rates and continued to see lowering them too soon as a bigger risk than waiting too long.

But in light of recent economic strength and higher than expected inflation, it would seem that two cuts or even just one might be too much to expect 🤷🏻

The next time Mester speaks, we are likely to hear a different tone.

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Is China's Economy Bottoming Out? 🐉

After a difficult 2023 and early 2024, the first read on China’s economy in March points to a tentative rebound heading into the second quarter.

The good news is the improvement is probably real: exports and the global electronics sector seem to be on the mend again, and looser Chinese credit markets are helping support investment.

The bad news is that Beijing still seems very nervous about letting the yuan fall too far, and US rates are rebounding again 😱

That could make further monetary stimulus trickier.

And China’s job market and property sector still look weak.

So the jury is still out.

Betting on China has not worked out for most investors, and it’s probably not wise to make the bet again ❌

Inner Circle Macro Update 🔍

If you wish to gain access to our Inner Circle Macro Update, packed with exclusive insights from award-winning portfolio manager and economist Seth Antiles, with secrets that’ll give you an edge in the stock market, be sure to upgrade by clicking the button below 👇️